ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 301710 
SPC MCD 301710 
TXZ000-301815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0844
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1210 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...A PORTION OF THE TX RIO GRANDE VALLEY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 301710Z - 301815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A SQUALL LINE CAPABLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL
LIKELY PARALLEL THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR DATA SHOWS AN INTENSIFICATION IN A
FORWARD-PROPAGATING QLCS ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND A 48 KT
WIND GUST WAS OBSERVED /1640Z/ AT KDLF.  GIVEN THAT THE AIRMASS
CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE VIA STRONG HEATING DOWNSTREAM OF THE
QLCS...AT LEAST A SUSTENANCE IF NOT INTENSIFICATION OF THE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS PROBABLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  ELY
LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN A FETCH OF RICH MOISTURE /15-16 K PER
KG LOWEST 100MB MEAN MIXING RATIO/ AND VEERING FLOW ATOP THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SERVE TO ENABLE STRONG STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW AS
THE QLCS MOVES SEWD INTO THE MORE MOISTURE-RICH AIR.  AS A
RESULT...STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
A MESOVORTEX OR TWO COULD POSE A LOCALIZED ENHANCED WIND GUST/BRIEF
TORNADO RISK AS WELL.

..SMITH/MEAD.. 05/30/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO...

LAT...LON   29210084 29500007 28669882 27549843 26839939 29210084 

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