ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 302000 
SPC MCD 302000 
MTZ000-IDZ000-302200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0846
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0300 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ID...MUCH OF WRN/CENTRAL MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 302000Z - 302200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED AND A WATCH IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR MOSAIC DEPICTS TSTMS OVER CENTRAL MT
NEAR/E OF LWT...AND ACROSS THE BITTERROOT RANGE ON THE MT/ID BORDER.
DESPITE LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...RELATIVELY COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPS
AND DIURNAL HEATING HAVE RESULTED IN A WEAKLY BUOYANT ENVIRONMENT.
FORCING FOR ASCENT/STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A COUPLE
LOW-AMPLITUDE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH NRN ID AND CENTRAL MT WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SVR TSTMS WITH A
RISK FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND STRONG GUSTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THIS AFTN. 

A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE SVR
THREAT.

..BUNTING/MEAD.. 05/30/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO...OTX...

LAT...LON   48971697 48971366 48961160 48690845 46890585 45200588
            45110828 45070986 45551283 46901579 47531696 48971697 

NNNN