ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 011946 
SPC MCD 011946 
MTZ000-012115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0856
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 PM CDT MON JUN 01 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN THROUGH CNTRL MT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 011946Z - 012115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM
PARTS OF SWRN THROUGH CNTRL MT THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WIND AND
LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED SOON.

DISCUSSION...THE ATMOSPHERE IS DESTABILIZING OVER WRN THROUGH CNTRL
MT WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE CLIMBING THROUGH THE 70S TO NEAR 80 F.
SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS TO SUPPORT UPPER 40S TO NEAR
50F SFC DEWPOINTS WITHIN A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...AND LATEST
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER CNTRL MT.
STORMS ARE ALREADY BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND
WILL LIKELY INTENSIFY DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO THE
UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE
TO 30-40 KT AS A MID-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS NEWD TOWARD SWRN MT. THUS
SOME STORMS MAY ACQUIRE MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION WHICH /ALONG WITH
7-7.5 C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY/ SHOULD
SUPPORT A THREAT FOR HAIL. INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL ALSO
AUGMENT THE THREAT FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS STORMS MOVE OFF
THE MOUNTAINS.

..DIAL/MEAD.. 06/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...MSO...

LAT...LON   45061050 45061211 45961217 46741253 47601257 47701032
            47560762 46050699 45250850 45061050 

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