ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 021928 
SPC MCD 021928 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-022100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0864
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0228 PM CDT TUE JUN 02 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 021928Z - 022100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER
SOUTHEAST ND IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...A FEW OF THEM SUPERCELLULAR. 
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH SOME RISK
FOR A TORNADO OR TWO.  A WW IS LIKELY IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM HAS RECENTLY FORMED OVER SIOUX COUNTY ND...SOUTH OF
BIS.  THIS STORM IS NEAR THE SURFACE LOW...AND IN A REGION WHERE
STRONG HEATING HAS OCCURRED MOST OF THE DAY.  AN INCREASING CU FIELD
TO THE EAST OF THE STORM...COUPLED WITH CONSISTENT CAM
GUIDANCE...SUGGESTS FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR SOON OVER MORE OF
SOUTHEAST ND.  A 19Z ABR RAOB CONTINUES TO SHOW SUBSTANTIAL MID
LEVEL CAPPING...WHICH MAY INHIBIT DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWARD INTO SD AT
LEAST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS REGION SHOW
VERTICAL SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS.  RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2000 J/KG FAVOR LARGE HAIL IN THE
STRONGER STORMS.  ALSO...VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT AND PROXIMITY TO
SURFACE LOW SUGGEST SOME RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO.

..HART/MEAD.. 06/02/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   46290116 47080024 47429798 47139647 46449593 45839662
            45659894 45700115 46290116 

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