ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 040120 SPC MCD 040120 NEZ000-KSZ000-040315- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0877 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0820 PM CDT WED JUN 03 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF KS/NEB CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 252... VALID 040120Z - 040315Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 252 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING TORNADOES CONTINUES ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 252. DISCUSSION...A DISCRETE SUPERCELL STORM IS EXHIBITING LITTLE NET MOTION OVER PORTIONS OF HODGEMAN AND PAWNEE COUNTIES KS. THIS CELL LIES ALONG A NE/SW BOUNDARY THAT APPROXIMATELY BISECTS KS. THE ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE AND ITS INTERACTION WITH THE BOUNDARY ARE SUPPORTING STRONG DYNAMIC PERTURBATIONS YIELDING MINIMAL/OCCASIONAL SWD TO WSWWD...MEAN-FLOW-DEVIANT STORM MOTION. IN THE SHORT-TERM...THIS WILL SUSTAIN A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL -- POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT -- AND DMGG WINDS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED COUNTIES...POTENTIALLY EXTENDING INTO EDWARDS COUNTY. THE DDC VWP HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONE DEVELOPMENT AND TORNADO POTENTIAL...AS SLY/SWLY FLOW IN THE 1-2-KM-AGL LAYER HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY. FURTHER INCREASE IN TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY OCCUR IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS AND LCLS LOWER...BEFORE MLCINH BECOMES MORE SUBSTANTIAL. FARTHER N...SLOPED ASCENT N OF THE SFC BOUNDARY HAS ALLOWED WARM-SECTOR-ORIGINATING PARCELS TO REACH THEIR LFCS. CONVECTION IS BLOSSOMING N OF HAYS TO SALINA...WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE FARTHER N INTO EARLY EVENING. MODIFICATIONS TO THE DDC 00Z RAOB FOR CONDITIONS N OF THE SFC BOUNDARY SUGGEST THAT -- DESPITE SOME MODEST CAPPING -- EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYERS ARE BASED AT THE SFC WHERE HIGH THETA-E AIR EXISTS. FURTHERMORE...30-50 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR COUPLED WITH STRONG INSTABILITY WILL FAVOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ACROSS PARTS OF N-CNTRL KS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WINDS. THE BACKED SFC WINDS N OF THE BOUNDARY WILL ALSO ENHANCE STORM INGESTION OF STREAMWISE VORTICITY AND SOME TORNADO RISK...AS WELL...ESPECIALLY AS THE LLJ INCREASES. STORMS MAY CONGEAL INTO SMALL...FORWARD-PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS LATER THIS EVENING WIND WITH SVR WIND/HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERNS. ..COHEN.. 06/04/2015 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 37760061 39780061 41009635 38979635 37760061 NNNN