ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 040729 
SPC MCD 040729 
SDZ000-NEZ000-WYZ000-040900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0882
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0229 AM CDT THU JUN 04 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...BLACK HILLS AREA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 253...

VALID 040729Z - 040900Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 253
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF
DIMINISHING...AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 253 WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED AT 08Z.

DISCUSSION...VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY
ISOLATED...AND REMAINING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL APPEARS
INCREASINGLY LIMITED TO A COUPLE OF SUSTAINED PERSISTENT CELLS.  ONE
IS ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK /NEAR DOUGLAS WY/ OF A WEAKENING CONVECTIVE
CLUSTER ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
PROGRESSING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.  THE
OTHER IS ISOLATED OFF TO THE EAST...SLOWLY ADVANCING INTO THE BLACK
HILLS REGION...WITHIN SOUTHERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW ON THE ORDER OF
20 KT.  

DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS STRONG...AIDED BY PRONOUNCED
VEERING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT.  HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT A
CONTINUING GRADUAL INCREASE IN INHIBITION FOR BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS
IN THE MOIST UPSLOPE REGIME WILL FURTHER DIMINISH CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL...PARTICULARLY AS REMAINING ONGOING STORMS CONTINUE TO
SPREAD INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS AND NORTHEAST OF THE
BLACK HILLS DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..KERR.. 06/04/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...

LAT...LON   43640502 44960340 44450204 43750219 42610378 42730542
            43640502 

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