ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 050110 SPC MCD 050110 KSZ000-NEZ000-050215- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0891 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0810 PM CDT THU JUN 04 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL AND NERN KS / S-CNTRL AND SERN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 050110Z - 050215Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...ISOLD SEVERE THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY DMGG WINDS MAY DEVELOP INTO NERN AND E-CNTRL KS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS A CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVES SWD. AN ISOLD LARGE HAIL RISK MAY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS S-CNTRL AND SERN PORTIONS OF NEB. DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED GUST FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OJC WNWWD TO 30 MI SE CNK AND ARCING NWWD TO 10 MI WSW EAR. A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS OVER NERN KS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SWD WITH ADDITIONAL UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT FAVORING THE WRN EDGE OF THE RESIDUAL BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM EARLIER-DAY CONVECTION. A SUFFICIENTLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER SAMPLED BY THE 00 UTC TOP RAOB /13 G PER KG LOWEST 100 MB MEAN MIXING RATIO/ BENEATH 7 DEG C H7-5 LAPSE RATES AMIDST A VEERING WIND PROFILE WILL LIKELY PROMOTE VIGOROUS UPDRAFT GROWTH BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD POOL. AN ISOLD LARGE HAIL THREAT AND PERHAPS A LOCALIZED WIND-DAMAGE RISK WILL PROBABLY BE CONFINED TO THE WRN HALF OF THE TSTM COMPLEX WHERE ACCESS TO STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST. FARTHER N IN S-CNTRL AND SERN NEB...ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND 30 KT H85 SLY FLOW ATOP A COLD POOL IN WAKE OF THE NERN KS ACTIVITY HAS RESULTED IN A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED STORMS EXHIBITING SEVERE-HAIL SIGNATURES PER WDSS-II IMAGERY. THINKING THIS ACTIVITY WILL PREFERENTIALLY FAVOR THE I-80 VICINITY ACROSS S-CNTRL AND SERN NEB OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND REMAIN LARGELY REMOVED FROM THE CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED AIRMASS LOCATED OVER FAR SERN NEB. SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PER KUEX AND THE 00 UTC OAX RAOB COUPLED WITH A FEED OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE W WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES. ISOLD LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 06/05/2015 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... LAT...LON 39249543 38829500 38169493 37829534 37939617 38349688 39049738 40669902 40999889 41379698 40979632 40579637 40429794 39719701 39249543 NNNN