ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 052018 
SPC MCD 052018 
TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-052145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0899
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0318 PM CDT FRI JUN 05 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN MO...NRN AR...AND FAR WRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 052018Z - 052145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS SHOULD
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A WW IS UNLIKELY IN THE
SHORT-TERM.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY FORMED ALONG AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SRN MO FROM THUNDERSTORMS EARLIER TODAY. WITH
STRONG DIURNAL HEATING...SFC TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY WARMED INTO
THE 80S ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY. A SEASONABLY MOIST LOW-LEVEL
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S. VARIOUS FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND RAP MESOANALYSIS SUGGEST
MLCAPE RANGES FROM 1500-2000 J/KG ALONG AND S OF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY.

WITH UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND TROUGHING ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES/ERN CONUS...THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS AREA
SHOULD MOVE SEWD WITH TIME. A RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW
IN SRN MO MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED VORTICITY
MAXIMUM FROM EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS. REGARDLESS...EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR OF 20-30 KT WILL PROBABLY ACT TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION...
ALTHOUGH ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH MULTICELL CLUSTERS THE
MOST LIKELY STORM MODE. WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...SOME RECENT
CAM GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVENTUALLY ATTEMPT TO
CONSOLIDATE INTO A QLCS LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN MO/NRN AR
BEFORE EVENTUALLY WEAKENING...WHICH COULD RESULT IN A GREATER
DAMAGING WIND THREAT THAN IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED. RADAR TRENDS WILL
BE MONITORED FOR THIS POSSIBILITY...ALTHOUGH A WW IS NOT LIKELY IN
THE SHORT-TERM.

..GLEASON/HART.. 06/05/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   36059330 36579408 37179451 37989408 37799282 37289070
            36808973 35958940 35268980 35009049 35369216 36059330 

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