ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 052208 
SPC MCD 052208 
WYZ000-060045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0901
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0508 PM CDT FRI JUN 05 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN/NRN WY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 052208Z - 060045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A SVR-TSTM RISK INTO THE
EVENING HOURS...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...THE COMBINATION OF DIURNALLY ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC
CIRCULATIONS...AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE NE OF A DIFFUSE MIXING
BOUNDARY/TROUGH ANALYZED NW/SE FROM NEAR YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK
TO NE OF RWL TO W OF LAR...MAY CONTINUE TO FOSTER AN UPTICK IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/INTENSITY. A BAND OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW
EXTENDING NEWD FROM THE ERN RIM OF A CYCLONE OVER SRN CA IS
SUPPORTING AROUND 25-35 KT OF DEEP SHEAR BASED ON THE RIW VWP. WHEN
COMBINED WITH 1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE IN MANY LOCATIONS ON THE
MOIST/NE SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...INTENSE/ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS MAY OCCUR. SVR HAIL/WIND WILL BE THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS. A TORNADO CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT GIVEN COMPLEX
FLOW-TERRAIN INTERACTIONS AND RELATED MESO-BETA/GAMMA SCALE
ENHANCEMENTS TO LOW-LEVEL SRH AMIDST STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES.
A COUPLE OF MITIGATING FACTORS FOR A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM RISK
ARE WIDESPREAD ANVIL DEBRIS AND ASSOCIATED STUNTED INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION NEAR CPR...ALONG WITH THE ABSENCE OF MORE
ROBUST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT.

..COHEN/EDWARDS.. 06/05/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON   42260611 42870810 44100929 44850923 44930687 44670423
            42660445 42260611 

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