ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 052337 
SPC MCD 052337 
AZZ000-060130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0903
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0637 PM CDT FRI JUN 05 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 052337Z - 060130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR STRONG TO PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR TSTMS
CONTINUES INCREASING. HOWEVER...WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...THE SPATIOTEMPORAL OVERLAP OF ASCENT RELATED TO A
MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX ON THE ERN RIM OF A CYCLONE OVER SRN CA PER
MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY...WITH PEAK HEATING OVER CNTRL/ERN AZ...IS
FACILITATING AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY. A SMALL...PERSISTENT
CELL IS MOVING INTO GILA COUNTY...AND MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AROUND THE PHOENIX AREA
TO N OF TUCSON. THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
INTENSITY...AS SFC DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO MIDDLE 50S
SUPPORT MARGINAL INSTABILITY IN NON-CONVECTIVELY-PROCESSED
AIR/POCKETS OF INSOLATION. VWPS ACROSS THE REGION SAMPLE 40-55 KT OF
MID-LEVEL SWLYS SUPPORTING SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. THE UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF THE
TROPOSPHERIC FLOW MAY ENCOURAGE SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS WITH LOCALIZED
STRONG WIND GUSTS...PERHAPS APPROACHING/REACHING MARGINALLY SVR
LEVELS ON AN ISOLATED BASIS. HOWEVER...THE RELATIVE PAUCITY OF
BUOYANCY...ASSOCIATED WITH ONLY MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...SHOULD MITIGATE THE OVERALL SVR-TSTM RISK.

..COHEN/EDWARDS.. 06/05/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

LAT...LON   32671229 33551245 36091190 36891068 36330937 33750957
            32791059 32671229 

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