ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 062005 
SPC MCD 062005 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-062130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0913
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0305 PM CDT SAT JUN 06 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SE ND...NE SD...WRN MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 062005Z - 062130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SE ND AND NE
SD OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE ARE LIKELY
TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ALTHOUGH A TORNADO CAN NOT BE TOTALLY
RULED OUT. WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1006 MB LOW OVER NCNTRL
SD WITH A COLD FRONT ADVANCING SEWD ACROSS CNTRL ND AND WCNTRL SD. A
CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS LOCATED ACROSS ECNTRL SD INTO SE
ND WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 60S F AND A POCKET
OF MODERATE INSTABILITY COULD DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
SHORT-TERM MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR INITIATE STORMS ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING THIS CONVECTION EWD ACROSS THE MCD
AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WSR-88D VWPS AT GRAND FORKS AND ABERDEEN
SHOW 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KT WHICH SHOULD ENABLE SOME OF THE CELLS
TO ORGANIZE. ROTATING STORMS WITH HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE CELLS
HAVE ACCESS TO THE GREATEST INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...CONVECTION MAY
TEND TO LINE UP ALONG THE COLD FRONT WHICH WOULD MAKE WIND DAMAGE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WITH BOWING LINE SEGMENTS.

..BROYLES/HART.. 06/06/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   44879693 44819903 45009981 45569984 46789939 47329815
            47469754 47509663 47179607 46669574 45539612 44879693 

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