ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 070333 
SPC MCD 070333 
KSZ000-NEZ000-COZ000-070430-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0920
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1033 PM CDT SAT JUN 06 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO...SWRN NEB...NWRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 264...

VALID 070333Z - 070430Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 264
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORM RISK LINGERS IN AND NEAR WW
264...BUT THE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DIMINISH WITH TIME.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS BOTH THE ERN AND WRN PARTS
OF WW 264...THOUGH IT HAS BECOME LARGELY DISORGANIZED. LOCALLY GUSTY
WINDS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE SMALL...LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS
MOVING ACROSS NWRN KS...WITH A 46 KT GUST RECENTLY OBSERVED AT COLBY
KS. HOWEVER...WITH INCREASING CINH AND WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /AS
OBSERVED FROM KGLD VWP/...A SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT IS NOT
EXPECTED AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES E OUT OF WW 264 AND NO DOWNSTREAM
WATCH IS ANTICIPATED. 

FURTHER WEST...CONVECTION PERSISTS E OF DENVER...WHERE DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR OF AROUND 30-35 KTS /PER KFTG VWP/ IS A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE
COMPARED TO AREAS FURTHER EAST. WEAKENING SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS NERN CO...THOUGH
ISOLATED INSTANCES OF HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST CORES. 

CONVECTION MAY LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS PERTURBATIONS
EMANATING FROM THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN CONTINUE TO MOVE
OVER THE AREA...BUT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN THE SEVERE THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. EARLY CANCELLATION OF WW 264 IS LIKELY IF
WEAKENING TRENDS PERSIST.

..DEAN.. 06/07/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

LAT...LON   38510393 39200468 39570505 39930491 40440398 40700276
            41070097 41309998 40239941 39449935 38859974 38450041
            38340357 38510393 

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