ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 070400 
SPC MCD 070400 
IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-070600-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0921
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 PM CDT SAT JUN 06 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SWRN MN...SERN SD...NERN NEB...NWRN IA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 265...

VALID 070400Z - 070600Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 265 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE WATCH AREA...WHERE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL
AND A COUPLE TORNADOES REMAIN POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE RISK HAS LESSENED
OVER NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA. A NEW WATCH IS LIKELY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA BY 05Z.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE TRANSITIONED INTO A PRONOUNCED LINEAR
STRUCTURE WITH A WELL DEVELOPED COLD POOL ACROSS NERN NEB/NWRN IA
LATE THIS EVENING...AND LATEST RADAR DATA SUGGESTS A RISK OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO WITH BRIEF LEADING-EDGE
CIRCULATIONS. AS THE LINE OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST...THE
DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A CONTINUED SVR
RISK GIVEN MUCAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG AND A 40-50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET.
THE PRIMARY RISK IS FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION. WITH TIME THE THREAT WILL INCREASE TO THE E OF WW...AND
THUS A NEW WATCH IS LIKELY PRIOR TO 05Z INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IA.


ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NRN HALF OF THE WW AREA...WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION/COOLING HAS SUBSTANTIALLY STABILIZED THE ENVIRONMENT.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING REMAINS A THREAT THERE AND
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NERN NEB/NWRN IA...REFERENCE WPC MESOSCALE
PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 180 FOR DETAILS.

..BUNTING.. 06/07/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON   41479684 41559777 41889785 42519726 43739656 44189638
            44359590 44369549 43969491 42939446 42539427 42049472
            41589565 41479684 

NNNN