ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 081541 
SPC MCD 081541 
NYZ000-PAZ000-081745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0936
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1041 AM CDT MON JUN 08 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 081541Z - 081745Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO COULD
ACCOMPANY A LINE SEGMENT PROGRESSING E FROM WRN NY THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...1-MIN VISIBLE SATELLITE AND 5-KM CAPPI RADAR IMAGERY
CONFIRM SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OF A LINE SEGMENT FROM MONROE TO
CATTARAUGUS COUNTIES. MODIFIED 12Z PIT RAOB SUGGESTS DOWNSTREAM WARM
SECTOR IN SWRN NY ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK INSTABILITY
WITH SBCAPE NEAR 500 J/KG. EAST OF THE 77TH MERIDIAN...SURFACE
TEMPERATURES LARGELY REMAIN IN THE 60S. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION WITH NERN EXTENT GIVEN 45-50 KT
FORWARD SPEED OF THE LINE AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVERAGE. THIS MAY
LIMIT OVERALL INTENSITY TO A MARGINAL SEVERE RISK. BUT GIVEN 0-1 KM
SHEAR AROUND 35 KT PER BGM VWP DATA...DAMAGING WINDS AND A BRIEF
TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE DESPITE WEAK BUOYANCY.

..GRAMS/HART.. 06/08/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...

LAT...LON   43087738 43297689 43517621 43597549 43397497 43077499
            42427539 42057620 41917788 42037849 42257859 43087738 

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