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Mesoscale Discussion 940 |
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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0940
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0106 PM CDT MON JUN 08 2015
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN/ERN LOWER MI
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 081806Z - 082000Z
PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT
SUMMARY...AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS SOME GUSTY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE MARGINAL
NATURE OF THE THREAT...A WW IS UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME.
DISCUSSION...A SHALLOW COLD FRONT HAS MOVED OVER MOST OF LOWER MI AS
OF 18Z...WITH WLY WINDS AT THE SFC AND ALOFT PREDOMINANT.
TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY WARMED INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS
THE MCD AREA...AND 1 MIN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM GOES 14
SHOWS NUMEROUS CU TOWERS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF NRN/ERN LOWER
MI. GIVEN THE SHALLOW/WEAK NATURE OF THE COLD FRONT...LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE MCD REGION...EVIDENCED BY SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S. AS AN UPPER TROUGH WITH
ASSOCIATED COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES MOVES OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TODAY...A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS
WILL EXIST AS MUCAPE INCREASES TO 1000-1500 J/KG. EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR OF 30-40 KT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY ENHANCED MID-LEVEL WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. SEVERAL STORMS WHICH HAVE ALREADY
FORMED IN THIS REGIME HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF MID-LEVEL ROTATION...WITH
SEVERAL REPORTS OF ONE INCH HAIL RECEIVED OVER THE LAST 90 MINUTES.
CURRENT EXPECTATIONS ARE FOR THE LARGE HAIL THREAT TO REMAIN TOO
ISOLATED/MARGINAL TO NECESSITATE A WW...ALTHOUGH RADAR TRENDS WILL
BE MONITORED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
..GLEASON/HART.. 06/08/2015
ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...
LAT...LON 43068232 42518255 42358302 42588414 43898492 44388554
44948524 45248468 44918331 44238313 43958257 43068232
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