ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 082046 
SPC MCD 082046 
NJZ000-PAZ000-MDZ000-DCZ000-VAZ000-WVZ000-082145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0946
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0346 PM CDT MON JUN 08 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN PA...CNTRL MD...NRN VA...DC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 276...278...

VALID 082046Z - 082145Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 276...278...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND RISK APPEARS TO BE INCREASING WITH INITIALLY
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS EVOLVING INTO A SHORT-LINE SEGMENT ACROSS PARTS
OF S-CNTRL PA. A TORNADO STILL REMAINS POSSIBLE ALTHOUGH THE OVERALL
RISK MAY BE LOW.

DISCUSSION...STORM-SCALE CONSOLIDATION HAS RAPIDLY OCCURRED IN THE
PAST HALF HOUR WITH INITIALLY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS MERGING WITH
UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO ITS SWRN FLANK. THIS HAS YIELDED A SHORT-LINE
SEGMENT FROM SCHUYLKILL TO FRANKLIN COUNTY PA AND ADDITIONAL MERGING
IS PROBABLE WITH A DISCRETE LEFT-MOVING STORM OVER WASHINGTON COUNTY
MD. THE AXIS OF MAXIMUM PRESSURE FALLS LIES AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION
FROM THE DC AREA TOWARDS NJ WITH MIDDLE 60S TO LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW
POINTS. MODIFIED 18Z IAD RAOB SUGGESTS MODERATE BUOYANCY IS PRESENT
WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR...ALTHOUGH LOW/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINS
INCREASINGLY MARGINAL WITH SRN EXTENT PER LWX/FCX VWP DATA. AS
SUCH...PREDOMINANT RISK SHOULD CONSIST OF STRONG WINDS CAPABLE OF
ISOLATED DAMAGE BUT A BRIEF TORNADO IS STILL POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
WITH NRN EXTENT /MAINLY IN ERN PA/.

..GRAMS.. 06/08/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...

LAT...LON   40847627 40927525 40557513 38567709 37767886 37957934
            38657885 39937783 40497713 40847627 

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