ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 090005 SPC MCD 090005 TNZ000-ARZ000-090100- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0952 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0705 PM CDT MON JUN 08 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN/N-CNTRL AR...AND SWRN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 090005Z - 090100Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE HAIL REPORTS AND/OR STRONG WIND GUSTS CONTINUES...AND WW 275 HAS BEEN EXTENDED TIL 01Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WFO MEG CWA. ADDITIONALLY...AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND REPORT IS POSSIBLE TO THE WEST OF THE WW. HOWEVER...THE LIMITED AREAL/TEMPORAL NATURE OF THE THREAT PRECLUDES ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE. DISCUSSION...THE LATEST 1-MIN GOES-14 VIS IMAGERY DEPICTS CONTINUAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A CONFLUENCE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CCA EWD TO NEAR MKL. WITH AN IMPULSE ALOFT SKIRTING THE REGION TO THE NE...WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT IS ALSO AIDING THIS DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S HAVE YIELDED MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG. MOREOVER...RECENT KNQA VWP AND MESO-ANALYSIS DATA SUGGEST AROUND 30-35 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS AVAILABLE FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. THEREFORE...THE THREAT FOR A FEW LARGE-HAIL REPORTS...AS WELL AS STRONG WIND GUSTS DUE TO AMPLE SFC HEATING/MOISTURE...WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. AS SUCH...WW 275 HAS BEEN EXTENDED IN TIME UNTIL 01Z OVER THE WFO MEG CWA. ADDITIONALLY...WHILE EFFECTIVE SHEAR WEAKENS SOME TO THE WEST...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED LARGE-HAIL REPORT OVER N-CNTRL/NERN AR AS WELL...BUT THE LIMITED TEMPORAL/AREAL NATURE PRECLUDES ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE. FURTHERMORE...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACROSS THE MCD AREA SHOULD BE DOWNWARD THROUGH THE LATE EVENING...AS INSOLATION WANES AND FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO LIFT AWAY FROM THE REGION. ..PICCA/EDWARDS.. 06/09/2015 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK... LAT...LON 35839287 35879035 35768829 35038864 35169105 35309239 35839287 NNNN