ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 111847 
SPC MCD 111847 
NYZ000-NJZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-112045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0970
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0147 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NE OHIO...THE MIDDLE TIER OF
PENNSYLVANIA...NRN NEW JERSEY...AND SERN NEW YORK...INCLUDING
PORTIONS OF THE GREATER NEW YORK CITY AREA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 111847Z - 112045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE NEED FOR A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON STILL APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO POTENTIALLY LIMITED STORM
COVERAGE.  BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF INCREASING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

DISCUSSION...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AND MID/UPPER FORCING FOR
ASCENT...APPEAR WEAK...BUT MODERATELY STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER
DESTABILIZATION IS UNDERWAY ALONG A STALLED/SLOW MOVING FRONTAL ZONE
ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST AND
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  INHIBITION FOR THE MIXED LAYER /NOW
CHARACTERIZED BY CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J PER KG/ CONTINUES TO
ERODE WITH DAYTIME HEATING...AND THIS IS RESULTING IN SCATTERED
DEEPENING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  AT LEAST SOME OF THIS IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY...WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED STORM
DEVELOPMENT INCREASINGLY LIKELY THROUGH 21-23Z.  SUSTAINED STORMS
PROBABLY WILL BE AUGMENTED/ENHANCED BY BY MODEST WEST NORTHWESTERLY
DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW AND SHEAR /30-40 KT/...ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE
OF THE SEASONABLY STRONG MID/UPPER JET STREAK NOW BEGINNING TO NOSE
EAST OF THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST.  THE EVOLUTION OF ONE OR
TWO SMALL ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION...WITH ASSOCIATED EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING COLD POOLS
ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..KERR/HART.. 06/11/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...BGM...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON   41028186 41318078 41348007 41277808 41577609 41317359
            40517413 40317552 40147781 40137868 40588074 41028186 

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