ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 120248 
SPC MCD 120248 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-COZ000-NMZ000-120415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0982
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0948 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE CO...SW KS...NRN TX PANHANDLE...OK PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 286...

VALID 120248Z - 120415Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 286
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...ISOLATED SVR THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE WATCH AREA WITH
UPSCALE GROWTH UNDERWAY ACROSS FAR SE CO. LARGE HAIL REMAINS THE
PRIMARY SVR THREAT.

DISCUSSION...RADAR IMAGERY OF THE SUPERCELL IN BACA COUNTY SUGGESTS
THAT A TRANSITION TO A MORE LINEAR MODE IS UNDERWAY. THIS IMAGERY
ALSO SHOWS A MESOSCALE VORT MAX JUST NW OF THE SUPERCELL. THE
SUPERCELL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EWD INTO WW 286 WITH A CONTINUED
SVR HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THE TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MCS
WOULD TYPICALLY FAVOR MORE OF A DAMAGING WIND THREAT BUT THE
DOWNSTREAM BOUNDARY LAYER STABILITY IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT MOMENTUM
TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE. SOME DAMAGING WINDS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WHENEVER THE MCS INTERACTS WITH ANY
ANTECEDENT DOWNSTREAM UPDRAFTS. TSTM CLUSTERS ALONG THE FRONT IN
OCHILTREE AND LIPSCOMB COUNTIES IN THE TX PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO
POSE A SVR THREAT /PRIMARILY HAIL/. ACTIVITY IN CLARK COUNTY KS HAS
SHOWN A DOWNWARD TREND DURING THE PAST FEW SCANS.

..MOSIER.. 06/12/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

LAT...LON   37370344 38040239 38370035 37709864 36999881 35920134
            35770302 37370344 

NNNN