ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 132256 
SPC MCD 132256 
TXZ000-NMZ000-140030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1009
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0556 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SE NM...TX PANHANDLE...TX S PLAINS...SW TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 297...

VALID 132256Z - 140030Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 297
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SOME UPSCALE GROWTH APPEARS LIKELY
WITH CLUSTER OF STORMS IN W-CNTRL NM WITH A RESULTING INCREASE IN
THE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA WITH THE STRONGEST DISCRETE CELLS LOCATED IN
NRN LEA IN NM...FAR NRN CULBERSON IN TX...AND NRN BREWSTER IN SW TX.
A TRANSITION TO A MORE LINEAR MODE HAS ALREADY OCCURRED WITH THE
TSTM CLUSTER EXTENDING ACROSS GUADALUPE...QUAY...ROOSEVELT...AND
CHAVES COUNTIES IN NM. CONTINUED EWD PROGRESS OF THIS CLUSTER WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN FURTHER LINEAR DEVELOPMENT AS THE LINE INTERSECTS
SUPERCELLS AHEAD OF IT ACROSS ROOSEVELT AND LEA COUNTIES. DOWNSTREAM
ENVIRONMENT IS UNSTABLE WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND GOOD
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RESULTING IN MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J PER KG.
KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT IS ALSO SUPPORTIVE OF AN ORGANIZED SVR THREAT
WITH RECENT MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTING EFFECTIVE SHEAR AT OR ABOVE 40
KT.

THE MAJORITY OF THE STORMS IN THE WATCH CONTINUE TO POSE A LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT. RECENT SVR REPORTS INCLUDE A GUST OF
53KT REPORTED AT KATS IN EDDY CO NM DURING THE PAST HALF HOUR AND
MULTIPLE REPORTS OF GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL IN W-CNTRL NM. WITH THE
CONTINUED TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MODE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN
ORGANIZED MCS...SOME SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WIND GUSTS -- I.E. GREATER
THAN 65 KT -- ARE POSSIBLE.

..MOSIER.. 06/13/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

LAT...LON   30090491 35160459 35160120 30100174 30090491 

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