ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 140549 
SPC MCD 140549 
SDZ000-MTZ000-WYZ000-140815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1012
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN WY...FAR SERN MT...CNTRL/WRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 140549Z - 140815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A SVR-TSTM RISK THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS PRESENTLY UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOPS SUGGEST THAT ASCENT IN THE EXIT
REGION OF MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX IS OVERSPREADING MODEST LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE N OF A SFC BOUNDARY ARCING FROM CNTRL SD INTO NWRN NEB TO
CNTRL WY. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE HOLDING IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO AROUND 60F
N OF THIS FRONT AS AN ELY/UPSLOPE LOW-LEVEL FLOW COMPONENT CONTINUES
IN THE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. THE 00Z RIW RAOB SAMPLED H7-H5
LAPSE RATES AROUND 8 C/KM...CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE BUOYANCY FOR
PARCELS ELEVATED ATOP A NOCTURNALLY STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER.
GIVEN THE OVERLAP OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCENT AND BUOYANCY...CAPPI
DATA AT 9 KM SUGGEST AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
FROM NERN WY INTO SERN MT...WITH A SUPERCELL TSTM EVIDENT OVER
CAMPBELL COUNTY WY.

THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD INTO SD THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED CONVECTION AIDED BY 40-50
KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR. GENERALLY ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SVR HAIL
SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN...AS NOCTURNAL COOLING CONTRIBUTES TO
INCREASING CINH FOR A SFC-BASED PARCEL...AND THIS WILL LIKELY
MITIGATE THE NEED FOR A WW. HOWEVER...IF AREAS OF UPSCALE CONVECTIVE
GROWTH WERE TO OCCUR WITH COLD-POOL AMALGAMATION ENHANCING THE
POTENTIAL FOR DOWNDRAFTS TO PENETRATE THE NOCTURNAL STABLE
LAYER...THE SVR-WIND RISK WOULD INCREASE. CONFIDENCE IN THIS
SCENARIO IS LOW WITHOUT EVEN STRONGER LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND THE
INCREASING NOCTURNAL CINH. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE MONITORED.

..COHEN/DIAL.. 06/14/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ABR...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW...

LAT...LON   44700643 45550382 45680198 45240096 44190108 43460422
            43630656 44700643 

NNNN