ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 141001 SPC MCD 141001 SDZ000-NDZ000-141230- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1013 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0501 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 141001Z - 141230Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT SUMMARY...A SQUALL LINE WILL ADVANCE EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DAKOTAS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME RISK FOR LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED. DISCUSSION...AN ORGANIZED...LEADING-LINE/TRAILING-STRATIFORM MCS IS PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS PARTS OF WRN SD AND SWRN ND...WITH LEADING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS RELATED TO WARM ADVECTION FOCUSED EWD ACROSS OTHER PARTS OF SRN ND. A COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS HAS BEEN ESTABLISHED ACROSS PARTS OF WRN SD/ERN WY...WHERE 2-HOUR PRESSURE RISES OF AROUND 1.5-2.5 MB ARE EVIDENT. ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE SPREADING EWD THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND COULD EXHIBIT SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION AS IT OVERTAKES MODESTLY GREATER THETA-E WITHIN AND E OF A NE/SW-ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE APPROXIMATELY BISECTING SD AND EXTENDING INTO NWRN MN. THIS IS REFLECTED BY THE PRESENCE OF LOWER 60S SFC DEWPOINTS NEAR AND ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE SFC FRONT...WHERE GREATER MUCAPE EXISTS. THE PRESENCE OF AROUND 40-50 KT OF MIDLEVEL FLOW SAMPLED BY ABR...UDX...AND BIS VWPS SUPPORTS SUFFICIENT CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR FOR MCS MAINTENANCE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DOWNDRAFT PENETRATION OF THE NOCTURNALLY ENHANCED STABLE LAYER SHOULD BE DETRIMENTAL TO ANY APPRECIABLE RISK FOR SVR WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...THE RESIDUAL MIXED LAYER EVOLVING FROM YESTERDAY/S DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE AND DRY AIR ALOFT SAMPLED BY RAP/ABR 00Z RAOBS MAY CONTINUE TO OFFER SUFFICIENT DCAPE FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS. AN ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR WIND GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS THE MCS PROGRESSES EWD AND POTENTIALLY EXHIBITS SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. LEADING SUSTAINED CONVECTIVE CELLS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM-ADVECTION REGIME FARTHER E IN ND MAY ALSO SUPPORT STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY SMALL HAIL...THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE DISPLACED TO THE N OF THE LARGER-SCALE COLD-POOL ENHANCEMENT TO SFC WIND GUSTS. ..COHEN/DIAL.. 06/14/2015 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... LAT...LON 43810371 44440226 45970080 46609860 46269755 44069997 43490298 43810371 NNNN