ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 160129 SPC MCD 160129 NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-MTZ000-IDZ000-160300- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1028 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0829 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...WY...SE ID...NRN UT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 301... VALID 160129Z - 160300Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 301 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF WY...SE ID AND NRN UT. WIND DAMAGE AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS ALTHOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. DISCUSSION...LATEST WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND A WELL-DEFINED VORITICY MAX OVER NRN NV. AT THE SFC...A LOW IS PRESENT OVER NW UT WITH BACKED SELY FLOW ACROSS SE ID AND PARTS OF SWRN WY WHICH IS HELPING TO ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE ID-WY STATE LINE. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS IS SUPPORTED BY THE HRRR. THE 00Z SOUNDING AT RIVERTON SHOWS SBCAPE JUST ABOVE 1200 J/KG WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE RATE NEAR 8.0 C/KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR AROUND 55 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. A BRIEF TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. AS CELLS GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND MOVE EWD INTO WRN AND CNTRL WY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF CELLS CAN CONGEAL INTO A SEMI-LINEAR STRUCTURE. ..BROYLES/MEAD.. 06/16/2015 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...UNR...BOU...CYS...BYZ...RIW...GJT...TFX...SLC... PIH... LAT...LON 40980403 40990995 40780995 40801017 40791051 40681094 40541109 40571135 40691144 40501178 40431194 40471217 40401217 40111215 39981221 39911242 39921401 42001401 41931301 42561298 42551320 42721324 43031320 43091321 43101296 43271296 43311285 43441290 43431279 43541278 43521268 44041266 44061223 43971206 43971187 43881172 43931139 43931111 43961103 44671105 44651069 44591062 44561031 44301024 44011006 43900987 43790977 43930961 43980951 43880938 43800925 43810909 43910908 43900891 44000891 44020873 44070875 44100855 44180857 44150710 44380713 44470731 44570734 44540602 43500602 43480494 42620489 42610407 40980403 NNNN