ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 161912 
SPC MCD 161912 
NEZ000-SDZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-162115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1033
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0212 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN WY...WRN NEB...FAR NERN
CO...AND SWRN SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 161912Z - 162115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH AN ATTENDANT
THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. WW
ISSUANCE IS LIKELY BY 20-21Z.

DISCUSSION...WEAK CONVECTION HAS INITIATED ACROSS THE MCD AREA AS OF
19Z...WITH A FURTHER UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. AT PRESENT...A COUPLE AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE HAVE MATERIALIZED...ONE ACROSS FAR ERN WY AND ANOTHER JUST
EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THESE LOWS...AS
WELL AS ALONG A COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE WEST AND WARM
FRONT/TROUGH TO THE SOUTH...WILL WORK IN CONCERT WITH WEAK ASCENT
FROM A DIFFUSE IMPULSE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. ADDITIONALLY...DEVELOPING CELLS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
WRN WY SHOULD PROGRESS NEAR/ALONG THE FRONT INTO CNTRL/SERN WY LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

IN COMBINATION WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM...SFC
TEMPS IN THE 70S AND SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 50S/LOWER 60S WILL
SUPPORT MLCAPE OF AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.
FURTHERMORE...RESPECTABLE 500-MB FLOW OF 40-50 KTS WILL PROMOTE
SUFFICIENT UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION FOR A SUSTAINED LARGE HAIL/STRONG
WIND THREAT ONCE MORE ROBUST CELLS DEVELOP. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
FOR A TORNADO OR TWO AS WELL...PRIMARILY ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE
MCD AREA...WHERE GREATER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY MORE BACKED
LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST IN THE VICINITY OF THE TRIPLE POINT/WARM
FRONT.

WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY 20-21Z AS ACTIVITY INCREASES.
OVER TIME THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORMS MAY AMALGAMATE INTO A COUPLE
OF E/SEWD-PROGRESSING COMPLEXES...WITH THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT
TRANSITIONING TO STRONG WINDS.

..PICCA/CORFIDI.. 06/16/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...RIW...

LAT...LON   42550758 43010799 43340802 43450769 43300608 43240481
            43360433 43550371 44030324 44190285 44210237 44030181
            43730153 43310138 42220150 41240161 40830177 40570242
            40650385 40990517 41540618 42550758 

NNNN