ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 171920 
SPC MCD 171920 
WVZ000-KYZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-172115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1050
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 PM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY REGION

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 171920Z - 172115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH SCATTERED TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY/CUMBERLAND
PLATEAU. UNLESS UPSCALE GROWTH BECOMES APPARENT...A SEVERE TSTM
WATCH ISSUANCE APPEARS UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE ACROSS A BROAD PORTION
OF THE WARM SECTOR FROM SE MO TO ERN KY WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF
MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 6 DEG C/KM AND MODERATE BUOYANCY
WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG. MUCH OF THIS DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN ON
THE SRN FRINGE OF A BELT OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL W/SWLYS OVER THE
MIDWEST. WITH NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT...0-6
KM SHEAR IS ONLY AROUND 25 KT PER AREA VWP DATA. THIS SUGGESTS
CONVECTION SHOULD STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE...BUT A COUPLE OF MULTICELL
CLUSTERS COULD POSE A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS BY LATE
AFTERNOON.

..GRAMS/KERR.. 06/17/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX...

LAT...LON   38039001 38488862 38938646 39168441 39198332 38908233
            38208199 37828212 37468234 37288280 37328365 37518624
            37498780 37388944 37649018 38039001 

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