ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 220617 
SPC MCD 220617 
MNZ000-SDZ000-220715-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1112
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0117 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD/WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 220617Z - 220715Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A NEW SEVERE TSTM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS STORMS IN
NORTHEAST SD EXIT WW 327 AND ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOP WITH E/SEWD
EXTENT WITHIN A CORRIDOR OF INCREASING DEEP LAYER ASCENT.  HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A THREAT WITH THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY.  OF
CONCERN AS WELL WILL BE A MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT
EXPECTED TO REACH SOUTHWEST MN AROUND 10Z ATTENDANT TO A FAST-MOVING
LINEAR MCS EVOLVING OVER CENTRAL SD DURING THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS.

DISCUSSION...AT 0550Z...RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A STRONG-SEVERE
STORM IN NORTHEAST SD /MOVING INTO DAY COUNTY/ WITH ADDITIONAL
STORMS DEVELOPING TO ITS NORTHWEST.  THIS STORM IS TRACKING TO THE
SOUTHEAST AT 40+ KT AND WILL EXIT WW 327 INTO LAC QUI PARLE AND
YELLOW MEDICINE COUNTIES MN BY 07Z.  IN ADDITION TO THIS
STORM...ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS ERN SD AND
WEST-CENTRAL...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH-CENTRAL MN WITHIN AN INCREASING
LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME AS A A SWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS AND A WARM FRONT
MOVES NEWD INTO SERN SD TO NORTH-CENTRAL IA BY 09Z.  HEIGHT FALLS
AHEAD OF A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE WRN DAKOTAS WILL
FURTHER SUPPORT NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...ALONG AND NORTHEAST
OF THE WARM FRONT.

THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP FAVORS AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO THIS MORNING WITH
MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY AND VERY STRONG BULK SHEAR FOR ELEVATED
SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  AS THE EVOLVING
LINER MCS SPREADS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF MN FROM BEFORE DAYBREAK
INTO THE MORNING...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...GIVEN A STRENGTHENING AND VERTICALLY
VEERING WIND PROFILE.

..PETERS/MEAD.. 06/22/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

LAT...LON   45929569 45389387 44919304 44129288 43669312 43579529
            43719673 44259785 44599781 45749632 45929569 

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