ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 230034 
SPC MCD 230034 
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-230130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1125
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0734 PM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO...FAR W-CNTRL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 230034Z - 230130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTM CLUSTER CAPABLE OF DMGG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND
POSSIBLY A TORNADO IS MOVING SWD INTO NRN MO. A NEW WW IS BEING
CONSIDERED ACROSS PARTS OF NRN MO AND FAR W-CNTRL IL.

DISCUSSION...TSTM CLUSTER CROSSING THE IA/MO BORDER CONTINUES TO
PROPAGATE S-SEWD...WITH SHORT-TERM TRENDS SUGGESTING LARGE
HAIL...DMGG WIND GUSTS..AND A TORNADO THREAT POSSIBLE. CINH
INCREASES WITH SWD EXTENT DOWNSHEAR INTO NRN MO WITH WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE 2-3 KM LAYER...WHICH MAKES IT UNCERTAIN HOW FAR
SWD CURRENT INTENSITY WILL BE MAINTAINED. HOWEVER...STEEP EML
COUPLED WITH RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PROVIDE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY FOR A CONTINUED SVR THREAT IN THE NEAR-TERM
OUTSIDE OF TORNADO WATCH 335...AND A NEW WW MAY NEED TO BE
CONSIDERED ACROSS NRN MO AND FAR W-CNTRL IL.

..ROGERS/CARBIN.. 06/23/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   40109041 39629071 39399156 39539308 39729362 40359381
            40639343 40639225 40499078 40109041 

NNNN