ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 240232 
SPC MCD 240232 
MDZ000-VAZ000-240300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1147
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0932 PM CDT TUE JUN 23 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...DC...DE...MD...NJ...PA...VA...WV

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 346...

VALID 240232Z - 240300Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 346
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS TO 50KT REMAIN A
POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE TIDEWATER AREA OF VA OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS
AS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER...MORE WIDESPREAD
THREAT APPEARS TO BE ON THE DECLINE.

DISCUSSION...OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE ON THE
DECLINE ACROSS EASTERN VA AS A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS SETTLES
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TIDEWATER. ABUNDANT INSTABILITY REMAINS
AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION AND COULD STILL FUEL LOCALLY INTENSE
UPDRAFTS. THE LACK OF STRONGER SHEAR AND FORCING ACROSS THIS REGION
WAS LIKELY RESULTING IN A MORE MULTICELLULAR CHARACTER TO THE STORMS
WITH CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW NOW SPREADING WELL AHEAD OF SOME OF THE
STRONGER UPDRAFTS. BOUNDARY/CELL MERGERS AND COLD POOL INTERACTIONS
COULD STILL PROMOTE BRIEF MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENTS RESULTING
SHORT-LIVED STRONGER WIND GUSTS GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF AMBIENT
INSTABILITY BUT LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST WATCH SHOULD BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 0300 UTC/11 PM EDT.

..CARBIN/DARROW.. 06/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...

LAT...LON   37397535 37287730 37317831 37807812 38117710 38317576
            38337469 37397535 

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