ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 241923 
SPC MCD 241923 
IAZ000-MOZ000-NEZ000-242130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1157
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0223 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN IA...FAR NWRN MO AND SERN NEB

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 241923Z - 242130Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WE ARE MONITORING AN AREA ACROSS SWRN IA AND VICINITY FOR
A CONDITIONAL TORNADO AND SIG HAIL THREAT.

DISCUSSION...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS TWO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
INTERSECTING NEAR THE MO RIVER FROM SERN NEB INTO SWRN IA WHERE
STRONG HEATING WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE THE CAPPING INVERSION THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE UPSTREAM...DEWPOINTS REMAIN NEAR 70 F WHICH
WHEN COMBINED WITH FURTHER HEATING WILL YIELD VERY STRONG
INSTABILITY. 

WIND PROFILES NEAR THESE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ARE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR
BOTH SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES. DESPITE MOST MODEL GUIDANCE TO THE
CONTRARY...AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN THIS GENERAL VICINITY...ALTHOUGH PERHAPS DISPLACED A
BIT FARTHER NEWD TOWARD EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT DEVELOPS. IF CU
FIELDS NEAR THE BOUNDARY CAN SUSTAIN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...A
WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

..JEWELL/GUYER.. 06/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...

LAT...LON   41379543 41559453 41609345 41459288 41209251 40789251
            40349285 40019324 40099433 40329530 40459600 40779610
            41009606 41379543 

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