ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 242258 
SPC MCD 242258 
IAZ000-250100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1162
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0558 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...WRN/CNTRL IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 242258Z - 250100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY DEVELOP FROM INITIALLY ELEVATED
TSTMS FORMING OVER W-CNTRL IA WITH THIS ACTIVITY POSSIBLY BECOMING
SURFACE-BASED DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH A RISK FOR ALL SEVERE
HAZARDS.

DISCUSSION...YET ANOTHER ROUND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY
FORMED ACROSS W-CNTRL IA IN THE WAKE OF DECAYING ELEVATED CONVECTION
OVER S-CNTRL IA. STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ALONG THE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THIS
RENEWED DEVELOPMENT. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY IS WHETHER THIS CONVECTION
CAN BECOME ROOTED INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH THE SURFACE WARM
FRONT DISPLACED SWWD OVER SWRN IA INTO N-CNTRL MO. BUT AS THE LLJ
STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTION MAY GROW
UPSCALE BETWEEN 00-04Z ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONG EML
SAMPLED IN THE 20Z OAX RAOB. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...LOW/DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR IS CERTAINLY SUPPORTIVE OF A RISK FOR A COUPLE TORNADOES AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

..GRAMS/KERR.. 06/24/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...

LAT...LON   42489584 42419496 42129405 41489314 40949325 40849356
            40969431 41709531 41919601 42189604 42489584 

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