ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 250423 
SPC MCD 250423 
ILZ000-MOZ000-IAZ000-250630-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1167
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1123 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MO...SERN IA...W-CNTRL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 350...

VALID 250423Z - 250630Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 350
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...PRIMARY SEVERE RISKS IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL SHOULD MAINLY BE PRESENT WITH A SEWD-MOVING
BOWING STRUCTURE NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER THAT SHOULD EVOLVE INTO
W-CNTRL IL.

DISCUSSION...A BOW EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROADER MCS OVER MAINLY IA HAS
SHIFTED INTO WW 350 ACROSS FAR SERN IA/NERN MO. CURRENT FORWARD
SPEED OF 30-35 KT WOULD RESULT IN THIS BOW REACHING THE SERN EDGE IN
W-CNTRL IL BETWEEN 07-08Z...BUT IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT ADDITIONAL
SEWD-ACCELERATION MAY OCCUR. OVERALL SCENARIO DISCUSSED WITHIN MCD
1166 REMAINS ON-TRACK WITH THIS ACTIVITY LIKELY CONTINUING ALONG THE
EDGE OF THE MLCAPE GRADIENT THAT LIES NE OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONT NEAR KCDJ TO KSTL. SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED
SEVERE HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

A MORE LIMITED SEVERE RISK IS EXPECTED WITH NRN EXTENT IN E-CNTRL
IA/NWRN IL GIVEN THE STABILIZED/PREVIOUSLY OVERTURNED AIR MASS
SAMPLED EARLIER IN THE 00Z DVN RAOB AND PROBABLE RECOVERY TO ONLY
WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY.

..GRAMS.. 06/25/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...

LAT...LON   41169197 41259153 41169119 40939055 40478985 40228963
            39908965 39658979 39399003 39139062 39119119 39139168
            39289199 39639258 40089310 40319319 40549321 40689287
            40479218 40929200 41169197 

NNNN