ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 301259 
SPC MCD 301259 
GAZ000-ALZ000-301500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1237
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0759 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL AL / N-CNTRL AND W-CNTRL GA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 301259Z - 301500Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STORMS ARE FORECAST TO INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS
AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS MORNING.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A MCV LOCATED 35 MI ENE CBM MOVING
ESEWD AND EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS N-CNTRL AL THIS MORNING.  A BELT
OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE /30 KT AT
H5/ SAMPLED ON THE 12Z BMX RAOB WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELLS. 
MODERATE BUOYANCY /1500 J PER KG MLCAPE/ WITH AMPLE PW OBSERVED ON
THE BMX RAOB WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM
THROUGH THE 70S AND INTO THE 80S BY THE LATE MORNING HOURS. 
UPSTREAM OF THE MCV...AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE LOWER TN/OH VALLEYS
WILL PIVOT INTO THE TN VALLEY BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND LEND AT LEAST
LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FOR A CONTINUATION OF VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY AS THIS STORM CLUSTER MOVES EWD TOWARDS THE AL/GA VICINITY.
THEREFORE A GRADUAL UPTICK IN STORM INTENSITY IS FORECAST WITH
PRIMARILY A WIND DAMAGE THREAT DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING. 
CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS IF
STORMS CAN DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE EVOLVING
CLUSTER.

..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 06/30/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...

LAT...LON   32368628 33928564 34348504 34318381 33758327 32718361
            32008422 31878529 32368628 

NNNN