ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 301617 
SPC MCD 301617 
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-301745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1239
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1117 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE AL...SRN AND CNTRL GA...FL PANHANDLE...NRN
FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 301617Z - 301745Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL CONTINUE TO BE
POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS CELLS INCREASE IN COVERAGE. WW
ISSUANCE MAY BECOME NECESSARY.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF COAST WITH SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS SRN AL...THE
FL PANHANDLE AND SRN GA IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S F. SFC TEMPS HAVE
WARMED TO NEAR 90 F WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. A MAXIMA
IN INSTABILITY IS ANALYZED ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE WHERE MLCAPE IS
ESTIMATED AROUND 3500 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE
FROM NEAR THIS MAXIMA NEWD ACROSS SRN GA. AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
STRONG UPDRAFT FORMATION. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WITH ABOUT 30
KT OF FLOW IN THE 3 TO 6 KM LAYER SHOULD ENABLE CELLS TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS WOULD MAKE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY
THREAT ALTHOUGH HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER
UPDRAFTS.

..BROYLES/HART.. 06/30/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...

LAT...LON   30158583 29918407 29808304 30128245 31178235 31798246
            32258284 32458356 31958486 31268567 30808612 30388618
            30158583 

NNNN