ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 301638 
SPC MCD 301638 
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-301815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1241
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN LA...SRN MS...SRN AL...WRN FL PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 301638Z - 301815Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
FROM ERN LA AND SRN MS EWD INTO THE SRN AL AND THE WRN FL PANHANDLE.
WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A VERY MOIST AIRMASS
LOCATED ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF COAST STATES WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S F. A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING
ACROSS SCNTRL MS AND SW AL WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOCATED JUST TO
THE SOUTH OF THIS CONVECTION. DUE TO THE HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS...STRONG
INSTABILITY SHOULD REDEVELOP TO THE SOUTH OF THIS LINE WHICH SHOULD
HELP GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THE CURRENT LINE OF STORMS. THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH SEVERAL SHORT-TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS. ACCORDING TO THE
JACKSON WSR-88D VWP...WIND PROFILES ARE UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH 30 TO 35
KT OF FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS. FOR THIS REASON AND DUE TO THE
STRONG INSTABILITY...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ESPECIALLY IF A COLD POOL CAN
ORGANIZE. HAIL MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS EMBEDDED
IN THE LINE.

..BROYLES/HART.. 06/30/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...

LAT...LON   30368640 30288795 30288944 30399059 30929124 31609108
            32139040 31878768 31768608 30368640 

NNNN