ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 302231 
SPC MCD 302231 
NEZ000-COZ000-WYZ000-010030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1255
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0531 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL THRU SERN WY...ADJACENT NEB PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 302231Z - 010030Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE
IN SCATTERED STRONG STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS/OVERSPREADING THE
REGION INTO THE 00-02Z TIME FRAME.

DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WHICH INITIATED ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS OF NORTHWEST WYOMING ARE GENERALLY MAINTAINING INTENSITY
AS THEY PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING.  THIS IS
BEING AIDED BY 20-30 KT NORTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW ON THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE GREAT BASIN SUBTROPICAL HIGH...AND
PERHAPS WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE
EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS.

IN THE PRESENCE OF SUFFICIENT STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS...AND WEAK TO MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY...AT
LEAST SOME FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS APPEARS POSSIBLE.  IT
IS NOT CLEAR THAT LOW-LEVEL FORCING WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF A
SUBSTANTIVE INCREASE IN NUMBER OF STORMS...OR CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. 
NORTHWESTERLY NEAR SURFACE FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE STORMS IS LESS
THAN OPTIMAL...BUT A STRONGLY HEATED AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER
PROBABLY WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO LOCALIZED STRONG WIND GUSTS...IN
ADDITION TO THE RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL....PARTICULARLY
ALONG/NEAR THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE LARAMIE MOUNTAINS.

..KERR/CORFIDI.. 06/30/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...UNR...BOU...CYS...RIW...

LAT...LON   42720888 43760830 43630629 42520283 40800394 41040594
            42060771 42720888 

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