ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 302322 
SPC MCD 302322 
NCZ000-VAZ000-SCZ000-010045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1257
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0622 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CAROLINA PIEDMONT INTO COASTAL
PLAIN...ADJACENT SE VIRGINIA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 378...379...

VALID 302322Z - 010045Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
378...379...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STORMS LIKELY WILL REMAIN STRONG TO SEVERE AS THEY
PROGRESS EAST OF THE WATCHES...ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA AND ADJACENT SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA DURING THE 01-03Z TIME
FRAME.  IT IS POSSIBLE...BUT NOT YET CERTAIN...THAT A NEW WW MAY BE
NEEDED.

DISCUSSION...A SLIGHT WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE NEAR SURFACE FLOW
AHEAD OF THE ONGOING EASTWARD PROGRESSING SQUALL LINE IS CERTAINLY
NOT OPTIMAL FOR LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/SYSTEM-RELATIVE INFLOW.  BUT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS VIGOROUS...AND APPEARS TO BE MAINTAINING
STRENGTH...AS IT ADVANCES EASTWARD AROUND 35 KTS ON THE LEADING EDGE
OF ITS CONGLOMERATE COLD POOL.  PEAK 3-SECOND WIND GUSTS IN SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS APPEAR TO BE RECENTLY ON THE ORDER OF 30-40 KT...AFTER
AN INITIAL BURST AT LEAST APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS NEAR COLUMBIA
SC.  WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINING VERY WARM AND POTENTIALLY
UNSTABLE AHEAD OF ACTIVITY...ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTH
CAROLINA PIEDMONT INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN OF NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN STRONG TO SEVERE INTO AT LEAST IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS
THROUGH 01-03Z.

..KERR.. 06/30/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...

LAT...LON   32877998 33677940 34377907 34967889 35717866 36527842
            37267742 36667672 36087629 35147658 34567699 33867793
            32877998 

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