ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 012030 
SPC MCD 012030 
OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-012300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1269
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0330 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR NRN OK AND THE OK PANHANDLE...FAR
SRN KS...FAR NERN TX PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 012030Z - 012300Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A VERY ISOLATED SVR-TSTM RISK MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...VERY ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEEPENING MAY EVOLVE DURING
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITHIN A NARROW CORRIDOR NEAR THE OK/KS BORDER ON
THE SRN EDGE OF REMNANT MID CLOUDS WITH RELATED BAROCLINICITY
ENHANCED BY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING...AND ALSO INVOF A REMNANT/DIFFUSE
FRONT FROM SWRN KS INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES. HIGH-BASED CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT IS ALREADY NOTED NEAR THE FRONT IN PARTS OF THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES. HOT TEMPERATURES AMIDST MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ON THE
WARM SIDE OF THE REMNANT CLOUD SHIELD/FRONT ARE CONTRIBUTING TO
MODERATE INSTABILITY THAT COULD FOSTER A COUPLE OF INTENSE UPDRAFTS.
DCAPE OF 1000-1300 J/KG SUGGESTS STRONG MICROBURSTS WITH VERY
ISOLATED SVR-OUTFLOW GUSTS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...THE PAUCITY OF ASCENT
THROUGH MUCH OF THE TROPOSPHERE WILL BE A MAJOR LIMITING FACTOR FOR
MORE SUBSTANTIAL COVERAGE OF SVR CONVECTION...PRECLUDING WW
ISSUANCE.

..COHEN/HART.. 07/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...

LAT...LON   36529701 36219902 36040061 36260120 36890049 37369890
            37179686 36899658 36579673 36529701 

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