ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 012043 
SPC MCD 012043 
COZ000-WYZ000-012315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1270
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 PM CDT WED JUL 01 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN PORTIONS OF WY/CO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 012043Z - 012315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON MAY POSE
AN ISOLATED SVR RISK...THOUGH WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION DEVELOPING WITHIN A PLUME OF ENHANCED
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PER WATER VAPOR LOOPS -- ON THE NERN RIM OF AN
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE CNTRL GREAT BASIN -- CONTINUES TO BE
FOSTERED BY DIURNALLY ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS. BUOYANCY IS
MARGINAL OWING TO THE LACK OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT DEEP SHEAR
AROUND 20-30 KT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW OCCASIONALLY ORGANIZED
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES WITH MARGINALLY SVR WIND/HAIL ON AN ISOLATED
BASIS. THE WLY COMPONENT OF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW SAMPLED BY AREA VWPS
SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION MAY SPREAD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN ONTO THE
ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS WHERE LARGE DCAPE OFFERED BY DEEP MIXING MAY
BOLSTER THE RISK FOR STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS -- ESPECIALLY WHERE COLD
POOLS AMALGAMATE. HOWEVER...WITH MLCAPE BEING MODEST -- GENERALLY
BETWEEN 500-1000 J/KG -- AND GIVEN THE LACK OF A MORE SALIENT
PERTURBATION ENHANCING LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...GREATER-COVERAGE SVR
RISK IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

..COHEN/HART.. 07/01/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...RIW...

LAT...LON   42980915 43440829 43130626 41270422 38510294 37820361
            38100505 40180582 42180831 42980915 

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