ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 042310 
SPC MCD 042310 
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-050115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1299
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0610 PM CDT SAT JUL 04 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SERN AL...SWRN GA...AND THE NRN FL
PANHANDLE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 042310Z - 050115Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...WHILE A STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...WW ISSUANCE IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME DUE TO THE MARGINAL NATURE OF THE THREAT.

DISCUSSION...A LINE OF CONVECTION ONGOING ACROSS THE MCD AREA WILL
CONTINUE MOVING ENEWD AROUND 30-35 KT...WITH EMBEDDED CORRIDORS OF
ENHANCED WINDS PRESENT ON AREA RADARS. ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE FORMED
ALONG A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY IN THE FL PANHANDLE. SFC OBSERVATIONS
IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM OF THE LINE OF STORMS INDICATE THE AIRMASS
REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S SUPPORTING MLCAPE OF
1500-2500 J/KG. STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE MID-SOUTH REMAINS GENERALLY DISPLACED TO THE N OF
ONGOING CONVECTION...WITH AREA VWPS DEPICTING WSWLY FLOW OF 25-35
KT. THIS COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL MID-LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT A CONTINUED STRONG TO LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS THE STORMS MOVE ACROSS SERN AL INTO SWRN GA
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STORM INTENSITY SHOULD DECREASE LATER
THIS EVENING WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING AND AS THEY
ENCOUNTER A CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED AIRMASS OVER S-CNTRL GA. THE
SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO ISOLATED/MARGINAL TO NEED A
WW.

..GLEASON/THOMPSON.. 07/04/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...

LAT...LON   30638465 30818668 31148691 31688654 32308600 32828598
            33008459 31878416 31028417 30638465 

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