ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 100122 
SPC MCD 100122 
ARZ000-MOZ000-100245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1351
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0822 PM CDT THU JUL 09 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN AR...SRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 100122Z - 100245Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A BAND OF STRONG CONVECTION SHOULD PROGRESS EWD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE OZARKS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A MARGINAL THREAT
FOR A FEW STRONG GUSTS AND/OR A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO WILL EXIST.
HOWEVER...THE LIMITED NATURE OF THE THREAT SHOULD PRECLUDE WW
ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A STRONG/MARGINALLY
SEVERE LINE OF CONVECTION /STRETCHING FROM LACLEDE COUNTY MO TO
BOONE COUNTY AR/ IS PROGRESSING EWD AROUND 30 KTS. WHILE THESE
STORMS ARE ENTERING A REGION CHARACTERIZED BY AIR SOMEWHAT
CONTAMINATED BY EARLIER CONVECTION...THEY ARE LIKELY BEING
MAINTAINED BY FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM A WEAK IMPULSE ALOFT...AS WELL
AS AN MCV ACROSS SRN MO. REGIONAL VWPS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY AROUND
30-40 KTS OF W/SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW BOWING
SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF A MARGINALLY SEVERE GUST OR TWO.
ADDITIONALLY...WHILE NEAR-SFC FLOW IS WEAK...AMPLE LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY OFFER THE OPPORTUNITY FOR A BRIEF TORNADO IN ANY
LINE-EMBEDDED CIRCULATIONS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE
LINE. HOWEVER...AS THE LINE PROGRESSES EWD THIS EVENING...MODEST BL
COOLING/INCREASING CINH SHOULD RESULT IN A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND.
THEREFORE...WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

..PICCA/EDWARDS.. 07/10/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   37619270 37669180 37669070 37309039 36809046 36419071
            36099111 35759213 35689382 36039376 37109310 37619270 

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