ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 101916 
SPC MCD 101916 
KSZ000-102015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1357
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0216 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS CNTRL/ERN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 101916Z - 102015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THE POTENTIAL MAY EXIST FOR A BRIEF TORNADO...STRONG WIND
GUSTS...AND HAIL ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN KS. A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR TRENDS SHOW A STORM BECOMING INCREASINGLY
ORGANIZED WITHIN SRN PORTION OF A PERSISTENT BAND OF CONVECTION
ACROSS CHASE/MARION COUNTIES...AND IS PROBABLY NOW SFC-BASED. THIS
IS OCCURRING ALONG A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT...WHERE A SLIGHT BACKING OF
SFC WINDS TO THE SE HAS OCCURRED. TWX VWP DATA SHOWS VEERING
LOW-LEVEL WINDS YIELDING AROUND 100 M2/S2 OF 0-1 KM SRH TO THE
IMMEDIATE N OF THE WARM FRONT. GIVEN LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND AT
LEAST A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ROTATING STORMS...THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE ORGANIZED TSTM CURRENTLY OVER CHASE COUNTY KS. POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY A N-NEWD MOVING TSTM CLUSTER
APPROACHING THE WICHITA AREA. WATCH ISSUANCE IS NOT CURRENTLY BEING
CONSIDERED...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

..ROGERS/HART.. 07/10/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...

LAT...LON   38379537 37469607 37029739 37079796 37909798 38779746
            38829629 38379537 

NNNN