ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 120204 
SPC MCD 120204 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-120330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1372
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0904 PM CDT SAT JUL 11 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ND...SD

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 403...

VALID 120204Z - 120330Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 403
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...SOME CHANCE STILL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITHIN
WATCH 403 THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. HOWEVER...WRN
PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA...FROM BURKE AND RENVILLE COUNTIES SOUTH
TO GRANT AND SIOUX COUNTIES IN ND...HAVE BEEN CLEARED.

DISCUSSION...STRONG INSTABILITY PERSISTS ALONG A NW-SE AXIS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND ERN PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS THIS EVENING. RECENT SOUNDING
FROM KBIS SHOWED UNCAPPED AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODEST SPEED
AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER.
EARLIER CONVECTION WAS LIKELY AIDED BY COMBINATION OF DIABATIC AND
SYNOPTIC INFLUENCES IN THE FORM OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE PASSAGE
OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THE REGION STILL LIES BENEATH BROADLY
DIFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND WEAK DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHEAST WITHIN THE FASTER SWLY AIRSTREAM BETWEEN THE WRN U.S.
UPPER TROUGH AND SRN U.S. ANTICYCLONE. WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL
LLJ AND AT LEAST NEUTRAL LARGE SCALE FORCING ACROSS THE REGION...IT
SEEMS PRUDENT TO MAINTAIN WATCH FOR THE TIME BEING. HOWEVER...LATEST
GUIDANCE WAS NOT INDICATING MUCH POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AND THE WATCH MAY BE CANCELED FOR SOME OR ALL
OF THE REGION PRIOR TO SCHEDULED EXPIRATION AT 0600 UTC/1 AM CDT.

..CARBIN/EDWARDS.. 07/12/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...

LAT...LON   44549712 44549784 44549786 44639870 44900040 45930200
            48110283 48360288 48720294 48810294 48880294 48880294
            49000294 49009794 45939655 45299644 45279644 45209644
            44729644 44549644 44549644 44549712 44549712 

NNNN