ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 140006 
SPC MCD 140006 
VAZ000-NCZ000-SCZ000-WVZ000-140130-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1400
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0706 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SRN VA...CNTRL/WRN NC...NRN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 412...414...415...

VALID 140006Z - 140130Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
412...414...415...CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...WHILE SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL CONTINUES WITH NEW CONVECTION AHEAD OF AN E/SEWD-PROGRESSING
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...A MARKED DOWNWARD TREND IN INTENSITY HAS BEEN
OBSERVED WITH THIS LINE OVER THE LAST 1-2 HOURS. AS SUCH...NO NEW
WATCH ISSUANCE IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS THE REGION.

DISCUSSION...RECENT DATA FROM REGIONAL WSR-88DS INDICATE A
NOTICEABLE DOWNWARD TREND IN REFLECTIVITY CORES...AS WELL AS OUTFLOW
ADVANCING AWAY FROM SEVERAL OF THESE CORES. THEREFORE...THE
WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH THIS LONG-LIVED /BUT DECAYING/
MCS APPEARS TO BE RAPIDLY DIMINISHING. HOWEVER...PRIOR DIURNAL
HEATING TO THE EAST OF THE LINE AND AMPLE MOISTURE HAS YIELDED
FAIRLY ROBUST CONVECTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL VA/NC AND NRN SC.
THE PRESENCE OF 1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR UPWARDS
OF 35-40 KTS /PER RAX VWP DATA AND MESOANALYSIS/ SHOULD OFFER ENOUGH
UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION TO MAINTAIN SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING
WINDS/MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...WITH THE LOSS OF
INSOLATION...CELLS SHOULD EXHIBIT AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND THROUGH
THE MID-LATE EVENING HOURS AND NO NEW WW ISSUANCE IS ANTICIPATED.

..PICCA.. 07/14/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LWX...RAH...ILM...RNK...RLX...CAE...GSP...

LAT...LON   35358233 36388071 38108016 37987843 34777967 34548146
            35358233 

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