ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 151953 
SPC MCD 151953 
MSZ000-ARZ000-MOZ000-152200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1431
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0253 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO TO NWRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 151953Z - 152200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A
CORRIDOR FROM THE OZARK PLATEAU TO NWRN MS.  LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT BUT A WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR WARRANTED.

DISCUSSION...STRONG HEATING IS LIKELY THE MAIN CONTRIBUTOR TO RECENT
UPWARD GROWTH IN CONVECTION ACROSS ECNTRL AR AS SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES
ARE NOW ON THE ORDER OF 8 C/KM.  THIS ACTIVITY IS GENERATING ALONG A
ZONE OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE THAT COULD ALLOW CONVECTION TO
BRIEFLY CONCENTRATE BEFORE PROPAGATING SEWD ALONG BACK SIDE OF ERN
U.S. TROUGH.  LATEST SATELLITE/MODEL DATA DO NOT SUGGEST ANY
MEANINGFUL LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND DIURNAL
COOLING LATER THIS EVENING SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING.

..DARROW/HART.. 07/15/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...

LAT...LON   37309343 34319258 33469137 34198998 35479122 37419236
            37309343 

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