ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 161905 
SPC MCD 161905 
MNZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-162100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1438
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 PM CDT THU JUL 16 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...ND...SD...MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 161905Z - 162100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WERE INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ND....NORTHEAST SD...AND WILL DEVELOP INTO WEST-CNTRL MN OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SOME OF
THESE STORMS. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED
AT THIS TIME.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS INITIATING IN WRN MCINTOSH COUNTY ND
EARLIER APPEAR TO HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A WEAK SFC TROUGH AND OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY INTERSECTION AMIDST MODEST AND WEAKLY CAPPED INSTABILITY.
RECENT VOLUME SCANS SUGGEST THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY HAS WEAKENED WHILE
NEW UPDRAFTS WERE INCREASING WITHIN THE WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME
ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER. IN ADDITION TO AREAS OF STRONGER HEATING AND
DESTABILIZATION...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO
CONTINUE GIVEN SUPPORTIVE BACKGROUND ASCENT...AND MESOSCALE FOCI
INCLUDING THE SFC TROUGH AND RESIDUAL STATIONARY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM MORNING STORMS EXTENDING EAST INTO MN AND SOUTHEAST ACROSS ERN
SD. POORLY ORGANIZED CHARACTER OF ONGOING CONVECTION STRONGLY
SUPPORTS OBJECTIVE DATA INDICATING EFFECTIVE SHEAR WAS LIKELY
SUB-OPTIMAL FOR MORE ROBUST/PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS. ON THE OTHER
HAND...PRESENCE OF BOTH SYNOPTIC ASCENT AND DIURNAL TRENDS IN
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE
AND...TO A LESSER EXTENT STORM STRENGTH...OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
LACK OF STRONGER SHEAR AND LIMITED/WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD
PRECLUDE A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE THREAT BUT TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MONITORED.

..CARBIN/HART.. 07/16/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

LAT...LON   47129944 47299851 46919628 45729566 44829662 43999823
            43739925 43930002 44340026 44990052 46120050 47129944 

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