ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 172152 
SPC MCD 172152 
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-180015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1450
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0452 PM CDT FRI JUL 17 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...OK PANHANDLE...WRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 172152Z - 180015Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY THROUGH MID EVENING
ACROSS THE TX AND OK PANHANDLES EXTENDING NWD INTO WRN KS. STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
EXPECTED DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT.

DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1003 MB LOW NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF KS-NEB AND CO WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO THE
TX PANHANDLE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING NEAR THE SFC TROUGH WHERE
SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F. THIS COMBINED WITH SFC
TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S F IS RESULTING IN STRONG INSTABILITY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE TX PANHANDLE WITH SOMEWHAT LESS INSTABILITY
ACROSS WRN KS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM CNTRL NM EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS THE MD AREA. THIS
ALONG WITH PERTURBATIONS IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SFC TROUGH NEAR
AMARILLO. SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS MOVE THE STORMS NEWD ACROSS THE
TX AND OK PANHANDLES AND DEVELOP ADDITIONAL STORMS NWD ACROSS WRN
KS. ALTHOUGH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
CONVECTION...ANY MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY
MID EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND STABILIZES.

..BROYLES/MEAD.. 07/17/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...

LAT...LON   38930166 39470146 39790119 39960071 39940025 39829981
            39439954 38499952 37089973 35349998 34540045 34020119
            34150222 34490250 35210226 36480170 38000175 38930166 

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