ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 180705 
SPC MCD 180705 
WIZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-180830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1459
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0205 AM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL/SWRN WI...SERN MN...FAR NERN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 434...

VALID 180705Z - 180830Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 434
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...BOWING QLCS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD STRONG TO
EMBEDDED SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO ACROSS MAINLY
W-CNTRL WI. TRAILING PORTION OF THE LINE MIGHT INTENSIFY NEAR THE
MN/IA BORDER TOWARDS THE MS RIVER.

DISCUSSION...QLCS WITH A WELL-DEFINED BOW/COMMA-HEAD SHOULD CONTINUE
TO PROGRESS E/SE AMID CURRENT SPEED AROUND 45 KT. MEASURED ASOS/AWOS
GUSTS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE LINE HAVE BEEN AROUND 40 KT WITH
EMBEDDED SWATHS TO 55 KT. WAKE-LOW WINDS HAVE CONSISTENTLY MEASURED
FROM 45-55 KT AS WELL. MPX VWP DATA SAMPLED A 70-KT REAR-INFLOW JET
BEHIND THE BOWING PORTION OF THE LINE WHICH HAS NOW PROGRESSED INTO
W-CNTRL WI. THIS PART OF THE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE THREAT WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS.

SWWD TRAILING PORTION OF QLCS HAS HAD CONSISTENTLY WEAKER GUSTS
AROUND 30 KT TO ISOLATED 40 KT. BUT GIVEN LARGER POTENTIAL BUOYANCY
RELATIVE TO FARTHER NE...IT IS PLAUSIBLE THAT FLANKING CELLS ALONG
THE S-CNTRL MN/N-CNTRL IA BORDER MIGHT FOSTER A SECONDARY SURGE OF
THE COLD POOL ACROSS PARTS OF SERN MN/NERN IA WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS/MARGINAL HAIL.

..GRAMS.. 07/18/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...

LAT...LON   44279250 44679218 45189235 45369211 45449149 45419054
            45208964 44938931 44508931 43928962 43439054 43249158
            43149208 43269324 43419355 43649337 43949315 44279250 

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