ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 191729 
SPC MCD 191729 
WVZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-191900-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1480
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1229 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN OH INTO FAR NORTHEAST KY AND WESTERN WV

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 191729Z - 191900Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS STORMS TRACK EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN OH INTO
NORTHEAST KY AND WESTERN WV. A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME
BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN MCV CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER WEST-CENTRAL
IND. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS CURRENTLY FAIRLY WEAK...LESS THAN 20
KT...WITH SOME INCREASE EXPECTED /20-30 KT/ AS THE MCV TRACKS OVER
THE REGION. THIS WILL GENERALLY LIMIT OVERALL ORGANIZATION WITH
MAINLY STORM CLUSTERS EXPECTED. HOWEVER...GIVEN STRONG INSTABILITY
AND STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT /PW
VALUES GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES/...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS/WET
MICROBURSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP INTO A
LOOSELY ORGANIZED LINE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MCV THROUGH
STORM MERGERS AND INTERACTIONS WITH OUTFLOWS WHILE TRACKING
EAST/SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN OH INTO FAR NORTHEAST KY AND WESTERN
WV. GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND BETTER FORCING
FOR ASCENT REMAINING NORTH OF THE AREA...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
REMAIN MARGINAL/SPORADIC AND A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

..LEITMAN/CORFIDI.. 07/19/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...JKL...ILN...

LAT...LON   38028282 38048164 38628107 39218091 39538137 39738194
            39828269 40058368 40228439 40058478 38748461 38028282 

NNNN