ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL
ACUS11 KWNS 200032 
SPC MCD 200032 
NYZ000-PAZ000-WVZ000-OHZ000-200200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1489
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0732 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OH THROUGH NRN PA AND WRN NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 443...

VALID 200032Z - 200200Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 443
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...PRIMARY REMAINING SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED OVER THE SRN
HALF OF WW 443 INCLUDING SRN PA. ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF WW 443 INCLUDING NERN OH THROUGH WRN NY IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNLIKELY.

DISCUSSION...ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF STORMS PERSIST FROM WCNTRL AND SRN
OH THROUGH NRN PA WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS LOCATED ACROSS NCNTRL PA
WHERE SOME MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CONTINUE TO BE OBSERVED.
ACTIVITY IS MOVING ESEWD AT 20-25 KT. ACTIVITY IN SCNTRL PA WILL
REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE AND 30-35 KT EFFECTIVE
SHEAR. THESE STORMS WILL APPROACH THE SRN EDGE OF WW 443 BY
0130Z...AND ADDITIONAL COUNTIES CAN BE ADDED AS NECESSARY. OTHERWISE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEBRIS...A STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAK
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE SUGGEST ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT
APPEARS UNLIKELY ACROSS THE NRN HALF OF WW 443 INCLUDING NERN
OH...EXTREME NWRN PA INTO WRN NY.

..DIAL.. 07/20/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

LAT...LON   41268327 41728157 43357811 43897530 41387536 41047788
            40138206 41268327 

NNNN