ZCZC SPCSWOMCD ALL ACUS11 KWNS 252159 SPC MCD 252159 KSZ000-OKZ000-COZ000-TXZ000-NMZ000-252330- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1533 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0459 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN KS...SERN CO...OK PANHANDLE...FAR NERN NM CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 252159Z - 252330Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING...WITH A THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY SPARSE...SO ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY. DISCUSSION...A COMPLEX SFC PATTERN IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A COMPOSITE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM CNTRL KS INTO SERN CO...A SFC LOW ACROSS WRN KS TO THE NORTH OF DDC...AND ANOTHER SFC LOW ACROSS SERN CO. A SEVERE TSTM HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR THE WRN KS LOW...WITH TCU NOTED SOUTH OF THIS STORM ALONG A TRAILING SFC TROUGH. THIS ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE EWD INTO WW 451...AND THE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE LOCALLY EXTENDED WWD IF ADDITIONAL NEW STORMS DEVELOP. STRONG INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL CLUSTERS IN THIS REGION...WITH SUPERCELL STRUCTURES POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE SHEAR WILL BE LOCALLY ENHANCED. FURTHER SW...STORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS NERN NM/SERN CO...WITH ADDITIONAL TCU NOTED NWD INTO E-CNTRL CO. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS SOMEWHAT WEAKER COMPARED TO AREAS TO THE NE...BUT STRONG INSTABILITY AND A DEEP/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. DUE TO THE RATHER DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THIS ACTIVITY...WW ISSUANCE IN THIS AREA IS UNLIKELY. ..DEAN/HART.. 07/25/2015 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ... LAT...LON 36220318 36250363 36600432 37050434 37790418 38970361 39080264 39070200 39120095 39050013 38999981 38599963 38179959 37889964 37550000 37020093 36570208 36360267 36220318 NNNN